Secure Trust Bank's (LON:STB) earnings trajectory could turn positive as the stock surges 11% this past week

It is a pleasure to report that the Secure Trust Bank PLC (LON:STB) is up 59% in the last quarter. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. In fact, the share price is down 38% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.

While the stock has risen 11% in the past week but long term shareholders are still in the red, let's see what the fundamentals can tell us.

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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the three years that the share price fell, Secure Trust Bank's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 15% each year. So do you think it's a coincidence that the share price has dropped 15% per year, a very similar rate to the EPS? We don't. So it seems like sentiment towards the stock hasn't changed all that much over time. It seems like the share price is reflecting the declining earnings per share.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Secure Trust Bank's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Secure Trust Bank the TSR over the last 3 years was -27%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Secure Trust Bank shareholders are down 11% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 6.0%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 1.1% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Even so, be aware that Secure Trust Bank is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.