Lloyds Banking Group plc Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Lloyds Banking Group plc (LON:LLOY) came out with its third-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was not a great result overall. While revenues of UK£4.7b were in line with analyst predictions, earnings were less than expected, missing statutory estimates by 19% to hit UK£0.012 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Lloyds Banking Group

Taking into account the latest results, Lloyds Banking Group's 13 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be UK£18.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 11% to UK£0.065 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£18.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.066 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of UK£0.67, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Lloyds Banking Group analyst has a price target of UK£0.83 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£0.53. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Lloyds Banking Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 0.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.6% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.1% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Lloyds Banking Group is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Lloyds Banking Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Lloyds Banking Group that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.