Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for LSE:0QS4 using Excess Returns Model Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Thurgauer Kantonalbank is arrived at using the Excess Return Model. This approach is used for finance firms where free cash flow is difficult to estimate.
In the Excess Return Model the value of a firm can be written as the sum of capital invested currently in the firm and the present value of excess returns that the firm expects to make in the future.
The model is sensitive to the Return on Equity of the company versus the Cost of Equity, how these are calculated is detailed below the main calculation.
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Thurgauer Kantonalbank's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Thurgauer Kantonalbank's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Thurgauer Kantonalbank's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Thurgauer Kantonalbank's earnings are expected to grow by 16.5% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Thurgauer Kantonalbank's revenue is expected to grow by 0.9% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Thurgauer Kantonalbank's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
2/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Fundamentally a bank's business is based upon borrowing and lending money, for
this reason they typically have high levels of debt and we analyse them
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
Thurgauer Kantonalbank's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Thomas Koller has been Chairman of Management Board, Head of Bank Management & Private Customers ad Interim Business Unit at Thurgauer Kantonalbank since January 1, 2019. He served as Chief Executive Officer of Thurgauer Kantonalbank since December 14, 2018. He was a Head of Retail Banking Division at Thurgauer Kantonalbank. He served as a Head of Private Customers Division and Interim Head of the Private Banking Division of Thurgauer Kantonalbank since August 01, 2011 and August 07, 2014 respectively. Mr. Koller served as a Head of Financial Consulting and Deputy Head of the Insurance Division of Raiffeisen Schweiz. He serves as the President of the Board of Trustees of TKB Jubiläums-Stiftung. He serves as the President of the Board of Trustees of Dr. Heinrich Mezger-Stiftung. Mr. Koller serves as a Member of the Board of Trustees of Stiftung Pensionskasse der Thurgauer Kantonalbank. He serves as a Member of the Advisory Board “Swiss Finance” at the Fachhochschule St. Gallen. Mr. Koller has been a Member of the Management Board of Thurgauer Kantonalbank since August 01, 2011. He studied Certified Business Administrator Certified Financial Planner Graduate from the Advanced Management Program from the Verein SKU (Schweizerische Kurse für Unternehmensführung).
Insufficient data for Thomas to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Thomas to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Thurgauer Kantonalbank management team is about average.
Chairman of Management Board
Chief Financial Officer
Head of Business Unit Services & Member of the Management Board
Head of the Market Services Division & Member of the Management Board
Head of Business Customers Division & Member of Management Board
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Thurgauer Kantonalbank board of directors is about average.
Thurgauer Kantonalbank provides banking products and services for private, corporate, commercial, and public sectors in Switzerland. It offers accounts, home and personal loans, property mortgages, asset management, financial planning, guarantees, cards, mobile payment, and online banking services. The company also provides finance investment and real estate services. It operates through a network of 28 branches and 77 ATMs. Thurgauer Kantonalbank was founded in 1871 and is headquartered in Weinfelden, Switzerland.
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