Spar Nord Bank Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of SPNOC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SPNOC (DKK131.5) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (DKK299.55)

Is SPNOC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SPNOC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SPNOC (DKK131.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (DKK299.55)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SPNOC is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SPNOC?

Key metric: As SPNOC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SPNOC. This is calculated by dividing SPNOC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SPNOC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	7x
Earnings	DKK 2.28b
Market Cap	DKK 15.86b

SPNOC key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	-0.6x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SPNOC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SPNOC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	4.5x
TBCG TBC Bank Group	5x	16.8%	UK£1.8b
BGEO Bank of Georgia Group	3.2x	-3.2%	UK£2.2b
HSBK Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan	3.3x	n/a	US$5.1b
TCS TCS Group Holding	6.5x	n/a	US$5.1b
SPNOC Spar Nord Bank	7x	-11.4%	DKK 15.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SPNOC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the peer average (4.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SPNOC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SPNOC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SPNOC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SPNOC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SPNOC's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SPNOC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	n/a	DKK 147.50 0%	5.1%	DKK 155.00	DKK 140.00	n/a	2
Jul ’24	DKK 106.90	DKK 122.50 +14.6%	14.3%	DKK 140.00	DKK 105.00	n/a	2
Jun ’24	n/a	DKK 120.00 0%	12.5%	DKK 135.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 126.80	2
May ’24	DKK 113.50	DKK 125.00 +10.1%	16.0%	DKK 145.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 122.90	2
Apr ’24	n/a	DKK 120.67 0%	14.5%	DKK 145.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 113.60	3
Mar ’24	DKK 128.80	DKK 120.67 -6.3%	14.5%	DKK 145.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 121.55	3
Feb ’24	DKK 106.80	DKK 112.50 +5.3%	6.7%	DKK 120.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 117.10	2
Jan ’24	n/a	DKK 112.50 0%	6.7%	DKK 120.00	DKK 105.00	DKK 106.80	2
Dec ’23	DKK 104.20	DKK 112.50 +8.0%	6.7%	DKK 120.00	DKK 105.00	n/a	2
Nov ’23	n/a	DKK 107.50 0%	2.3%	DKK 110.00	DKK 105.00	n/a	2

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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