Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.

BATS-CHIXE:BMPSM Stock Report

Market Cap: €7.5b

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena Valuation

Is BMPSM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BMPSM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BMPSM (€5.97) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€14.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BMPSM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BMPSM?

Key metric: As BMPSM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BMPSM. This is calculated by dividing BMPSM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is BMPSM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio2.8x
Earnings€2.69b
Market Cap€7.47b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BMPSM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BMPSM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average5.5x
HSBK Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan
3.3xn/aUS$5.3b
TCS TCS Group Holding
6.5xn/aUS$5.1b
STAN Standard Chartered
7.1x5.1%UK£22.8b
TBCG TBC Bank Group
4.9x16.8%UK£1.8b
BMPSM Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena
2.8x-22.7%€7.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BMPSM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.8x) compared to the peer average (5.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BMPSM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies46PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BMPSM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (2.8x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BMPSM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BMPSM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio2.8x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate BMPSM's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BMPSM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€5.97
€6.82
+14.3%
8.5%€7.83€6.00n/a10
Nov ’25€5.08
€6.50
+28.0%
5.7%€7.30€6.00n/a9
Oct ’25€5.00
€6.48
+29.6%
7.1%€7.30€5.90n/a8
Sep ’25€5.25
€6.48
+23.3%
7.1%€7.30€5.90n/a8
Aug ’25€5.02
€6.07
+20.9%
7.1%€6.60€5.30n/a8
Jul ’25€4.65
€5.75
+23.5%
10.3%€6.60€5.00n/a8
Jun ’25€4.92
€5.56
+13.0%
9.5%€6.50€5.00n/a8
May ’25€4.47
€5.00
+11.8%
11.8%€5.70€4.00n/a8
Apr ’25€4.26
€4.69
+10.0%
14.0%€5.70€4.00n/a8
Mar ’25n/a
€4.48
0%
12.5%€5.70€4.00n/a8
Feb ’25n/a
€3.84
0%
7.9%€4.40€3.50n/a6
Jan ’25€3.13
€3.77
+20.2%
8.7%€4.40€3.40n/a6
Dec ’24€3.11
€3.72
+19.5%
6.5%€4.10€3.40n/a6
Nov ’24n/a
€3.34
0%
7.7%€3.71€3.00€5.086
Oct ’24n/a
€3.20
0%
5.9%€3.50€3.00€5.005
Sep ’24€2.62
€3.10
+18.2%
11.0%€3.50€2.50€5.255
Aug ’24n/a
€2.89
0%
8.1%€3.20€2.50€5.025
Jul ’24n/a
€2.20
0%
50.5%€3.00€0€4.655
Jun ’24€2.02
€2.20
+9.0%
50.5%€3.00€0€4.925
May ’24n/a
€2.15
0%
51.1%€3.00€0€4.475
Apr ’24n/a
€2.03
0%
52.5%€3.00€0€4.265
Mar ’24€2.54
€2.03
-20.1%
52.5%€3.00€0n/a5
Feb ’24n/a
€1.94
0%
52.8%€3.00€0n/a5
Jan ’24n/a
€11.34
0%
146.3%€40.00€0€3.134
Dec ’23€1.81
€11.34
+528.0%
146.3%€40.00€0€3.114
Nov ’23n/a
€14.33
0%
126.9%€40.00€0n/a3

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Secure Trust Bank

UK£67.9m

Provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom.

STB

UK£3.56

7D

-12.7%

1Y

-44.9%

Secure Trust Bank

UK£67.9m

Provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom.

STBL

UK£3.58

7D

-13.1%

1Y

-44.9%

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria

€52.8b

Provides retail banking, wholesale banking, and asset management services in the United States, Spain, Mexico, Turkey, South America, and internationally.

BVA

€9.30

7D

2.2%

1Y

10.1%