Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena Valuation
Is BMPSM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of BMPSM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: BMPSM (€6.54) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€14.41)
Significantly Below Fair Value: BMPSM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BMPSM?
Key metric: As BMPSM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is BMPSM's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 3.1x |
| Earnings | €2.69b |
| Market Cap | €8.26b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | n/a |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | n/a |
| PEG Ratio | -0.1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does BMPSM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 5.7x | ||
HSBK Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan | 3.5x | n/a | US$5.3b |
STAN Standard Chartered | 7.4x | 5.2% | UK£23.6b |
TBCG TBC Bank Group | 4.8x | 17.4% | UK£1.7b |
NWG NatWest Group | 7.2x | 1.1% | UK£32.2b |
BMPSM Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena | 3.1x | -22.3% | €8.3b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BMPSM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.1x) compared to the peer average (5.7x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does BMPSM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?
| 2 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BMPSM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.1x) compared to the European Banks industry average (7.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is BMPSM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 3.1x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate BMPSM's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | €6.54 | €6.91 +5.8% | 8.2% | €7.83 | €6.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Dec ’25 | €6.11 | €6.82 +11.7% | 8.5% | €7.83 | €6.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’25 | €5.08 | €6.50 +28.0% | 5.7% | €7.30 | €6.00 | n/a | 9 |
| Oct ’25 | €5.00 | €6.48 +29.6% | 7.1% | €7.30 | €5.90 | n/a | 8 |
| Sep ’25 | €5.25 | €6.48 +23.3% | 7.1% | €7.30 | €5.90 | n/a | 8 |
| Aug ’25 | €5.02 | €6.07 +20.9% | 7.1% | €6.60 | €5.30 | n/a | 8 |
| Jul ’25 | €4.65 | €5.75 +23.5% | 10.3% | €6.60 | €5.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Jun ’25 | €4.92 | €5.56 +13.0% | 9.5% | €6.50 | €5.00 | n/a | 8 |
| May ’25 | €4.47 | €5.00 +11.8% | 11.8% | €5.70 | €4.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Apr ’25 | €4.26 | €4.69 +10.0% | 14.0% | €5.70 | €4.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Mar ’25 | n/a | €4.48 0% | 12.5% | €5.70 | €4.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Feb ’25 | n/a | €3.84 0% | 7.9% | €4.40 | €3.50 | n/a | 6 |
| Jan ’25 | €3.13 | €3.77 +20.2% | 8.7% | €4.40 | €3.40 | n/a | 6 |
| Dec ’24 | €3.11 | €3.72 +19.5% | 6.5% | €4.10 | €3.40 | €6.11 | 6 |
| Nov ’24 | n/a | €3.34 0% | 7.7% | €3.71 | €3.00 | €5.08 | 6 |
| Oct ’24 | n/a | €3.20 0% | 5.9% | €3.50 | €3.00 | €5.00 | 5 |
| Sep ’24 | €2.62 | €3.10 +18.2% | 11.0% | €3.50 | €2.50 | €5.25 | 5 |
| Aug ’24 | n/a | €2.89 0% | 8.1% | €3.20 | €2.50 | €5.02 | 5 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | €2.20 0% | 50.5% | €3.00 | €0 | €4.65 | 5 |
| Jun ’24 | €2.02 | €2.20 +9.0% | 50.5% | €3.00 | €0 | €4.92 | 5 |
| May ’24 | n/a | €2.15 0% | 51.1% | €3.00 | €0 | €4.47 | 5 |
| Apr ’24 | n/a | €2.03 0% | 52.5% | €3.00 | €0 | €4.26 | 5 |
| Mar ’24 | €2.54 | €2.03 -20.1% | 52.5% | €3.00 | €0 | n/a | 5 |
| Feb ’24 | n/a | €1.94 0% | 52.8% | €3.00 | €0 | n/a | 5 |
| Jan ’24 | n/a | €11.34 0% | 146.3% | €40.00 | €0 | €3.13 | 4 |
| Dec ’23 | €1.81 | €11.34 +528.0% | 146.3% | €40.00 | €0 | €3.11 | 4 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2024/12/27 05:20 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2024/12/23 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2024/09/30 |
| Annual Earnings | 2023/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
|
* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .
Analyst Sources
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is covered by 32 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Luigi Tramontana | Banca Akros S.p.A. (ESN) |
| Jaime Echenique Conde | Banco Santander |
| Paola Sabbione | Barclays |