Results: Getlink SE Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Getlink SE (EPA:GET) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 2.2% to €15.78 in the week after its latest yearly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of €1.8b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Getlink surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €0.60 per share, a notable 11% above expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Getlink

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from ten analysts covering Getlink is for revenues of €1.60b in 2024. This implies an uncomfortable 13% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plunge 29% to €0.43 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.60b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.43 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €16.71, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Getlink, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €19.50 and the most bearish at €10.90 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 13% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 14% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.5% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Getlink's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €16.71, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Getlink going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Getlink has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are potentially serious) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.