Major Estimate Revision • Jul 29
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 11% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from €2.36 to €2.63. Revenue forecast unchanged at €298.0m. Net income forecast to grow 20% next year vs 30% growth forecast for IT industry in France. Consensus price target of €37.00 unchanged from last update. Share price was steady at €36.80 over the past week. New Risk • Jul 19
New minor risk - Insider selling There has been significant insider selling in the company's shares over the past 3 months. Total value of shares sold: €894k This is considered a minor risk. There are several reasons why an insider may be selling, including to cover a tax obligation or pay for some other expense. However, we generally consider it a negative if insiders have been selling, especially if they do so below the current price. It implies that they considered a lower price to be reasonable. This is a weak signal, but if there is a pattern of unexplained selling, it can be a sign the insider believes the company's stock is overpriced. Note: We only include open market transactions and private dispositions of directly owned stock by individuals, not by corporations or trusts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (12% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (3.0% increase in shares outstanding). Significant insider selling over the past 3 months (€894k sold). Reported Earnings • Mar 25
Full year 2023 earnings released Full year 2023 results: Revenue: €277.5m (up 3.6% from FY 2022). Net income: €10.0m (down 9.9% from FY 2022). Profit margin: 3.6% (down from 4.1% in FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 5.7% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 6.9% growth forecast for the IT industry in France. Announcement • Mar 20
Visiativ SA (ENXTPA:ALVIV) acquired Solid Applications Limited. Visiativ SA (ENXTPA:ALVIV) acquired Solid Applications Limited on January 1, 2024. In 2023, SOLID Applications generated sales of £2 million. The acquisition of 100% of the share capital of Solid Applications Limited, financed entirely in cash.Visiativ SA (ENXTPA:ALVIV) completed the acquisition of Solid Applications Limited on January 1, 2024. New Risk • Feb 19
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.5% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (9.1% operating cash flow to total debt). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.7% average weekly change). Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.5% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.3% increase in shares outstanding). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 12
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 29% After last week's 29% share price gain to €35.60, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14x. Average forward P/E is 16x in the IT industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 81% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €23.33 per share. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Feb 12
Now 53% overvalued after recent price rise Over the last 90 days, the stock has risen 73% to €35.60. The fair value is estimated to be €23.33, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 13% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 50%. Revenue is forecast to grow by 7.4% in 2 years. Earnings are forecast to grow by 3.0% in the next 2 years. New Risk • Oct 28
New minor risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$100m. Market cap: €94.1m (US$99.5m) This is considered a minor risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (9.1% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.6% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.2% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (€94.1m market cap, or US$99.5m). Price Target Changed • Oct 25
Price target decreased by 18% to €31.83 Down from €38.83, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 44% above last closing price of €22.10. Stock is down 20% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.73 for next year compared to €2.49 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 23
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to €21.50, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 14x in the IT industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 33% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €37.18 per share. Announcement • Oct 10
Visiativ SA (ENXTPA:ALVIV) agreed to acquire 1Life Group. Visiativ SA (ENXTPA:ALVIV) agreed to acquire 1Life Group on October 9, 2023. Financed entirely in cash, the acquisition of 60% of 1Life's capital will be consolidated in Visiativ's financial statements during Q4 2023. 1Life achieved revenue of €10 million in 2022. The transaction is expected to close in the weeks ahead. Reported Earnings • Oct 01
First half 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.75 (vs €0.27 in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: EPS: €0.75 (up from €0.27 in 1H 2022). Revenue: €127.7m (up 12% from 1H 2022). Net income: €3.40m (up 183% from 1H 2022). Profit margin: 2.7% (up from 1.0% in 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 4.4% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 6.8% growth forecast for the IT industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 50% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 11% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Sep 29
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 23% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (9.6% operating cash flow to total debt). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite having no free cash flows. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.2% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (4.1% increase in shares outstanding). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 22
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to €27.40, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 15x in the IT industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 48% over the past three years. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at €39.26 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 21
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 10% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2022 has been updated. 2022 EPS estimate fell from €2.75 to €2.47. Revenue forecast unchanged from €248.2m at last update. Net income forecast to grow 30% next year vs 19% growth forecast for IT industry in France. Consensus price target down from €38.83 to €36.50. Share price fell 12% to €27.10 over the past week. Buying Opportunity • Sep 20
Now 31% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock is down 13%. The fair value is estimated to be €39.03, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 56%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.1% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 12% per annum over the same time period. Price Target Changed • Sep 20
Price target decreased by 7.1% to €36.50 Down from €39.30, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 35% above last closing price of €27.10. Stock is down 19% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €3.06 for next year compared to €2.49 last year. Announcement • Aug 07
Visiativ SA (ENXTPA:ALVIV) agreed to acquire All The Assets And Employees Of Techform. Visiativ SA (ENXTPA:ALVIV) agreed to acquire All The Assets And Employees Of Techform on August 7, 2023. This acquisition will strengthen the Visiativ Innovation Platform offered to industrial SMEs and mid-sized companies. The takeover has been welcomed by Techform's employees and customers, reassured by Visiativ's solidity. Visiativ announces it has been chosen by Toulouse Commercial Court to take over all the assets and employees of Techform. Laurent Fiard of Visiativ welcomes TECHFORM teams to Visiativ and be able to offer TECHFORM CPQ solutions to all our SME customers. The strong complementarity of Techform's and Visiativ's respective customer portfolios will contribute to achieving significant commercial synergies. The acquisition is financed entirely in cash. The acquisition of the assets of Techform, which will be consolidated in the second half of 2023. Announcement • Aug 01
Visiativ SA (ENXTPA:ALVIV) acquired 90% stake in Ebm Gmbh. Visiativ SA (ENXTPA:ALVIV) acquired 90% stake in Ebm Gmbh on July 1, 2023. Transaction is financed entirely in cash.
Visiativ SA (ENXTPA:ALVIV) completed the acquisition of 90% stake in Ebm Gmbh on July 1, 2023. Buying Opportunity • Jul 13
Now 21% undervalued Over the last 90 days, the stock is up 12%. The fair value is estimated to be €42.51, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 8.8% over the last 3 years. Earnings per share has grown by 56%. For the next 3 years, revenue is forecast to grow by 5.0% per annum. Earnings is also forecast to grow by 14% per annum over the same time period. Upcoming Dividend • May 29
Upcoming dividend of €1.10 per share at 3.7% yield Eligible shareholders must have bought the stock before 05 June 2023. Payment date: 07 June 2023. Payout ratio is a comfortable 44% and this is well supported by cash flows. Trailing yield: 3.7%. Lower than top quartile of French dividend payers (5.3%). Higher than average of industry peers (2.0%). Price Target Changed • Mar 06
Price target increased by 9.7% to €40.97 Up from €37.33, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 16% above last closing price of €35.25. Stock is up 44% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €3.07 for next year compared to €2.22 last year. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €37.33 Down from €40.50, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 34% above last closing price of €27.85. Stock is up 7.1% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.89 for next year compared to €2.22 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 2 experienced directors. 6 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Sylvie Guinard was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2017. The company’s insufficient board refreshment is considered a risk according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model. Price Target Changed • Oct 25
Price target decreased to €37.33 Down from €40.50, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 39% above last closing price of €26.95. Stock is down 1.3% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €2.89 for next year compared to €2.22 last year. Reported Earnings • Oct 02
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0.27 (vs €0.25 in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: €0.27 (up from €0.25 in 1H 2021). Revenue: €115.7m (up 21% from 1H 2021). Net income: €1.20m (up 9.1% from 1H 2021). Profit margin: 1.0% (in line with 1H 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 7.2% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 8.1% growth forecast for the IT industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 53% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 5% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 27
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 15% share price decline to €29.65, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 17x in the IT industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 24% over the past three years. Board Change • Apr 27
Insufficient new directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 4 experienced directors. 4 highly experienced directors. Independent Director Daniel Derderian was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2014. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Insufficient board refreshment. Price Target Changed • Jan 26
Price target increased to €30.93 Up from €27.67, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is approximately in line with last closing price of €29.50. Stock is up 52% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €1.55 for next year compared to €0.38 last year. Reported Earnings • Sep 28
First half 2021 earnings released The company reported a strong first half result with improved earnings, revenues and profit margins. First half 2021 results: Revenue: €91.7m (up 7.1% from 1H 2020). Net income: €1.10m (up €5.44m from 1H 2020). Profit margin: 1.2% (up from net loss in 1H 2020). Price Target Changed • Sep 28
Price target increased to €27.67 Up from €25.50, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. New target price is 10% above last closing price of €25.10. Stock is up 27% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Apr 29
Full year 2020 earnings released: EPS €0.38 (vs €0.67 in FY 2019) The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €197.4m (down 5.1% from FY 2019). Net income: €1.46m (down 44% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 0.7% (down from 1.3% in FY 2019). Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 18% per year whereas the company’s share price has fallen by 16% per year. Reported Earnings • Mar 28
Full year 2020 earnings released The company reported a poor full year result with weaker earnings, revenues and profit margins. Full year 2020 results: Revenue: €189.9m (down 8.7% from FY 2019). Net income: €1.50m (down 43% from FY 2019). Profit margin: 0.8% (down from 1.3% in FY 2019). Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 26
New 90-day low: €18.72 The company is down 2.0% from its price of €19.20 on 27 November 2020. The French market is up 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the IT industry, which is flat over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €22.95 per share. Major Estimate Revision • Feb 03
Analysts update estimates The 2020 consensus earning per share (EPS) estimate increased from €0.41 to €0.53. Revenue estimate for the same period was approximately flat at €190.0m. Net income is expected to grow by 63% next year compared to 1.8% growth forecast for the IT industry in France. The consensus price target increased from €24.00 to €24.33. Share price is up 10% to €21.90 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 08
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 22% share price gain to €24.00, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 53.6x, up from the previous P/E ratio of 44x. This compares to an average P/E of 22x in the IT industry in France. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 51%. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 08
New 90-day high: €24.00 The company is up 19% from its price of €20.20 on 09 October 2020. The French market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the IT industry, which is up 5.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €21.68 per share. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 11
New 90-day high: €21.75 The company is up 3.0% from its price of €21.10 on 11 September 2020. The French market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the IT industry, which is up 1.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €21.75 per share. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 26
Market pulls back on stock over the past week After last week's 16% share price decline to €17.00, the stock is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 38x, down from the previous P/E ratio of 45.1x. This compares to an average P/E of 19x in the IT industry in France. Total return to shareholders over the past three years is a loss of 59%. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 24
Analysts lower EPS estimates to €0.65 The 2020 consensus revenue estimate was lowered from €195.0m to €192.5m. Earning per share (EPS) estimate was also lowered from €0.83 to €0.65 for the same period. Net income is expected to grow by 103% next year compared to 2.5% growth forecast for the IT industry in France. The consensus price target was lowered from €26.50 to €23.50. Share price is down by 11% to €17.60 over the past week. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 24
New 90-day low: €17.60 The company is down 3.0% from its price of €18.20 on 24 July 2020. The French market is flat over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the IT industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. According to the Simply Wall St valuation model, the estimated intrinsic value of the company is €21.36 per share. Price Target Changed • Oct 24
Price target lowered to €23.50 Down from €26.50, the current price target is an average from 3 analysts. The new target price is 34% above the current share price of €17.60. As of last close, the stock is down 23% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Oct 02
First half earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total profits of €1.74m, down 50% from the prior year. Total revenue was €206.6m over the last 12 months, up 9.8% from the prior year. Price Target Changed • Sep 25
Price target raised to €26.20 Up from €24.30, the current price target is an average from 2 analysts. The new target price is 31% above the current share price of €19.98. As of last close, the stock is down 18% over the past year.