The Visiativ SA (EPA:ALVIV) Annual Results Are Out And Analysts Have Published New Forecasts

It's been a good week for Visiativ SA (EPA:ALVIV) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 2.4% to €19.96. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at €190m, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Visiativ

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Visiativ from three analysts is for revenues of €201.0m in 2021 which, if met, would be a reasonable 5.9% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 264% to €1.63. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €200.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.60 in 2021. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €25.33, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Visiativ analyst has a price target of €25.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €25.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Visiativ is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Visiativ's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2021 expected to display 5.9% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 8.4% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Visiativ.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Visiativ's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Visiativ analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Visiativ (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

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