STMicroelectronics N.V. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders in STMicroelectronics N.V. (EPA:STMPA) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 22% to €22.25 in the week since its latest half-year results. Revenues came in at US$5.3b, in line with estimates, while STMicroelectronics reported a statutory loss of US$0.05 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on STMicroelectronics after the latest results.

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Following last week's earnings report, STMicroelectronics' 15 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$11.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 31% to US$0.50 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$11.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.78 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

View our latest analysis for STMicroelectronics

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €25.98, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values STMicroelectronics at €31.03 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €20.04. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.0% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.5% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.0% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - STMicroelectronics is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for STMicroelectronics. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for STMicroelectronics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we've spotted with STMicroelectronics .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.