Soitec SA Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

There's been a notable change in appetite for Soitec SA (EPA:SOI) shares in the week since its full-year report, with the stock down 13% to €46.07. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at €891m, although statutory earnings per share came in 11% below what the analysts expected, at €2.56 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Soitec's 16 analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be €899.5m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 31% to €3.35. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €923.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.44 in 2026. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Soitec

The consensus price target fell 5.9% to €74.00, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Soitec, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €130 and the most bearish at €50.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Soitec's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.3% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Soitec is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Soitec's future valuation.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Soitec going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Soitec that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.