Are Investors Undervaluing Kalray S.A. (EPA:ALKAL) By 30%?

Key Insights

• Kalray's estimated fair value is €30.55 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of €21.50 suggests Kalray is potentially 30% undervalued
• Analyst price target for ALKAL is €27.40 which is 10% below our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Kalray S.A. (EPA:ALKAL) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for Kalray

Crunching The Numbers

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	-€6.40m	€4.43m	€7.52m	€11.2m	€15.1m	€18.7m	€22.0m	€24.7m	€26.9m	€28.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Est @ 69.57%	Est @ 48.96%	Est @ 34.53%	Est @ 24.43%	Est @ 17.36%	Est @ 12.41%	Est @ 8.94%	Est @ 6.52%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 8.3%	-€5.9	€3.8	€5.9	€8.1	€10.1	€11.6	€12.6	€13.0	€13.1	€12.9

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €85m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.9%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.3%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €29m× (1 + 0.9%) ÷ (8.3%– 0.9%) = €387m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €387m÷ ( 1 + 8.3%)¹⁰= €174m

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €259m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €21.5, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 30% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kalray as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.300. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Kalray

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Kalray, there are three further aspects you should look at:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Kalray that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does ALKAL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every French stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.