SMCP S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

It's been a sad week for SMCP S.A. (EPA:SMCP), who've watched their investment drop 11% to €2.43 in the week since the company reported its full-year result. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.14, some 65% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €1.2b. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for SMCP

After the latest results, the three analysts covering SMCP are now predicting revenues of €1.26b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a modest 2.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.28b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.52 in 2024. So we can see that while the consensus made no real change to its revenue estimates, it also no longer provides an earnings per share estimate. This suggests that revenues are what the market is focusing on after the latest results.

We'd also point out that thatthe analysts have made no major changes to their price target of €4.64. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on SMCP, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €6.70 and the most bearish at €2.50 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that SMCP's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 2.2% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 4.4% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that SMCP is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that SMCP's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €4.64, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

At least one of SMCP's three analysts has provided estimates out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with SMCP .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.