Valbiotis (EPA:ALVAL) shareholders are up 11% this past week, but still in the red over the last five years
Valbiotis SA (EPA:ALVAL) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 23% in the last quarter. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 44%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.
Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last five years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.
View our latest analysis for Valbiotis
We don't think Valbiotis' revenue of €2,814,000 is enough to establish significant demand. We can't help wondering why it's publicly listed so early in its journey. Are venture capitalists not interested? So it seems that the investors focused more on what could be, than paying attention to the current revenues (or lack thereof). It seems likely some shareholders believe that Valbiotis has the funding to invent a new product before too long.
We think companies that have neither significant revenues nor profits are pretty high risk. We can see that they needed to raise more capital, and took that step recently despite the fact that it would have been dilutive to current holders. While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized).
When it last reported, Valbiotis had minimal cash in excess of all liabilities. So it's prudent that the management team has already moved to replenish reserves through the recent capital raising event. With that in mind, you can imagine there may be other factors that caused the share price to drop 8% per year, over 5 years. The image below shows how Valbiotis' balance sheet has changed over time; if you want to see the precise values, simply click on the image.
Of course, the truth is that it is hard to value companies without much revenue or profit. Given that situation, would you be concerned if it turned out insiders were relentlessly selling stock? I would feel more nervous about the company if that were so. It costs nothing but a moment of your time to see if we are picking up on any insider selling.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 10% in the last year, Valbiotis shareholders lost 30%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 7% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Valbiotis you should know about.
But note: Valbiotis may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on French exchanges.
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Valbiotis SA engages in the research and development of health nutrition products to prevent and combat metabolic and cardiovascular diseases.
Exceptional growth potential with adequate balance sheet.