Analysts Are Updating Their TF1 SA (EPA:TFI) Estimates After Its Half-Yearly Results

Last week saw the newest half-year earnings release from TF1 SA (EPA:TFI), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. TF1 reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of €1.1b and statutory earnings per share of €0.91, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for TF1

Following last week's earnings report, TF1's five analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be €2.38b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 22% to €1.08. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €2.37b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.03 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on TF1's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €10.48, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on TF1, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €12.70 and the most bearish at €7.60 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 1.8% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 1.5% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.9% per year. So although TF1 is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around TF1's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that TF1's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €10.48, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple TF1 analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for TF1 that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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