Earnings Update: Vicat S.A. (EPA:VCT) Just Reported Its Half-Year Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that Vicat S.A. (EPA:VCT) released its half-year result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.4% to €56.80 in the past week. Results were roughly in line with estimates, with revenues of €1.9b and statutory earnings per share of €6.09. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Vicat after the latest results.

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Taking into account the latest results, Vicat's three analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €3.79b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 3.9% to €5.85 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €3.89b and earnings per share (EPS) of €6.09 in 2025. It's pretty clear that pessimism has reared its head after the latest results, leading to a weaker revenue outlook and a minor downgrade to earnings per share estimates.

View our latest analysis for Vicat

The analysts made no major changes to their price target of €64.00, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on Vicat's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Vicat analyst has a price target of €73.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €57.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Vicat is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 2.4% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 7.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 0.7% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Vicat is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Vicat going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It might also be worth considering whether Vicat's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.