Announcement • Oct 09
METabolic EXplorer S.A.(ENXTPA:METEX) dropped from CAC AllShares Index METabolic EXplorer S.A. has been dropped from the CAC AllShares Index New Risk • Sep 29
New major risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than a year old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2023. This is considered a major risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. In the worst case scenario, it may be facing other major going concern issues jeopardizing its viability as a listed company. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Latest financial reports are more than 1 year old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). Revenue has declined by 36% over the past year. Market cap is less than US$10m (€6.16m market cap, or US$6.87m). New Risk • Apr 16
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (22% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 5.1% per year over the past 5 years. Market cap is less than US$10m (€8.78m market cap, or US$9.33m). Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (16% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • Apr 02
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings have declined by 5.1% per year over the past 5 years. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are declining over an extended period, then in most cases the share price will decline over time unless the company can turn around its fortunes. A trend of falling earnings can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (23% average weekly change). Earnings have declined by 5.1% per year over the past 5 years. Market cap is less than US$10m (€7.22m market cap, or US$7.76m). Minor Risk Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (16% increase in shares outstanding). New Risk • Feb 18
New major risk - Financial position The company has less than a year of cash runway based on its current free cash flow trend. Free cash flow: -€54m This is considered a major risk. With less than a year's worth of cash, the company will need to raise capital or take on debt unless its cash flows improve. This would dilute existing shareholders or increase balance sheet risk. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on free cash flow trend (-€54m free cash flow). Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (15% average weekly change). Minor Risks Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€17m net loss in 2 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (16% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (€20.7m market cap, or US$22.3m). New Risk • Oct 20
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 2 years. Trailing 12-month net loss: €49m Forecast net loss in 2 years: €11m This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (12% average weekly change). Minor Risks Less than 1 year of cash runway based on current free cash flow (-€54m). Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€11m net loss in 2 years). Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (16% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (€11.7m market cap, or US$12.4m). Reported Earnings • Oct 02
First half 2023 earnings released: €0.33 loss per share (vs €0.51 loss in 1H 2022) First half 2023 results: €0.33 loss per share (improved from €0.51 loss in 1H 2022). Revenue: €69.9m (down 46% from 1H 2022). Net loss: €16.9m (loss narrowed 8.1% from 1H 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 34% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.4% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 47% per year but the company’s share price has only fallen by 36% per year, which means it has not declined as severely as earnings. New Risk • Oct 01
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of French stocks, typically moving 9.5% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.5% average weekly change). Minor Risks Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (16% increase in shares outstanding). Market cap is less than US$100m (€25.4m market cap, or US$26.8m). Major Estimate Revision • Jul 29
Consensus revenue estimates decrease by 15% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 revenue forecast fell from €235.0m to €200.0m. EPS estimate unchanged from -€0.44 per share at last update. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 3.5% next year. Consensus price target of €1.20 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 13% to €0.97 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jun 14
Consensus EPS estimates upgraded to €0.35 loss The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2023 has been updated. 2023 losses forecast to reduce from -€0.40 to -€0.35 per share. Revenue forecast unchanged from €235.0m at last update. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 7.6% next year. Consensus price target of €1.20 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 5.1% to €1.07 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jan 06
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 133% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €242.1m to €232.7m. Losses expected to increase from €0.39 per share to €0.91. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 22% next year. Consensus price target down from €1.85 to €1.60. Share price rose 6.0% to €1.28 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €1.85 Down from €2.70, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 14% above last closing price of €1.62. Stock is down 73% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.39 compared to earnings per share of €2.31 last year. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 07
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 27% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €290.6m to €264.3m. Losses expected to increase from €0.30 per share to €0.38. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 19% next year. Consensus price target down from €2.70 to €1.94. Share price fell 4.4% to €1.51 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Oct 02
First half 2022 earnings released: EPS: €0 (vs €2.70 in 1H 2021) First half 2022 results: EPS: €0 (down from €2.70 in 1H 2021). Revenue: €129.9m (up 250% from 1H 2021). Net loss: €18.4m (down 123% from profit in 1H 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 11% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.6% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in France. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 22
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 15% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €298.3m to €290.6m. Losses expected to increase from €0.26 per share to €0.30. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 0.1% next year. Consensus price target of €2.70 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 19% to €1.67 over the past week. Major Estimate Revision • Jul 09
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for revenues in 2022 has deteriorated. 2022 revenue forecast decreased from €355.8m to €298.3m. Forecast loss of -€0.26, down from profit of €0.30 per share profit previously. Chemicals industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 0.8% next year. Consensus price target down from €10.50 to €2.85. Share price fell 10% to €1.79 over the past week. Price Target Changed • Apr 27
Price target increased to €10.50 Up from €7.80, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 92% above last closing price of €5.48. Stock is up 5.7% over the past year. Reported Earnings • Apr 02
Full year 2021 earnings: Revenues in line with analyst expectations Full year 2021 results: Revenue: €171.6m (up €169.7m from FY 2020). Net income: €84.1m (up €93.1m from FY 2020). Profit margin: 49% (up from net loss in FY 2020). Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Over the next year, revenue is forecast to grow 107%, compared to a 13% growth forecast for the industry in France. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Mar 07
Investor sentiment deteriorated over the past week After last week's 18% share price decline to €4.05, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 2.4x. Average trailing P/E is 20x in the Chemicals industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 189% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 16
Investor sentiment improved over the past week After last week's 17% share price gain to €6.16, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 3.6x. Average forward P/E is 19x in the Chemicals industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 258% over the past three years. Reported Earnings • Apr 04
Full year 2020 earnings released Full year 2020 results: Net loss: €8.94m (loss widened 8.5% from FY 2019). Is New 90 Day High Low • Mar 02
New 90-day high: €4.82 The company is up 118% from its price of €2.21 on 01 December 2020. The French market is up 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is down 8.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 09
New 90-day high: €3.13 The company is up 84% from its price of €1.70 on 10 November 2020. The French market is up 7.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is down 3.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 23
New 90-day high: €2.95 The company is up 68% from its price of €1.76 on 23 October 2020. The French market is up 13% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is flat over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Jan 05
New 90-day high: €2.87 The company is up 71% from its price of €1.68 on 07 October 2020. The French market is up 14% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is up 3.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Dec 04
New 90-day high: €2.58 The company is up 41% from its price of €1.83 on 04 September 2020. The French market is up 13% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 19
New 90-day high: €1.89 The company is up 5.0% from its price of €1.80 on 20 August 2020. The French market is up 11% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. However, it outperformed the Chemicals industry, which is down 2.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Oct 14
New 90-day low: €1.62 The company is down 16% from its price of €1.92 on 16 July 2020. The French market is down 1.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Chemicals industry, which is down 1.0% over the same period. Reported Earnings • Oct 01
First half earnings released Over the last 12 months the company has reported total losses of €8.44m, with losses narrowing by 5.4% from the prior year.