Pernod Ricard SA Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Pernod Ricard SA (EPA:RI) last week reported its latest yearly results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €5.83, some 29% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €12b. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Pernod Ricard after the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Pernod Ricard

Taking into account the latest results, Pernod Ricard's 17 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €11.5b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 28% to €7.53. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €11.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of €7.54 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of €148, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Pernod Ricard, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €200 and the most bearish at €106 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 1.0% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 7.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.2% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Pernod Ricard is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Pernod Ricard's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €148, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Pernod Ricard analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Pernod Ricard (of which 1 can't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.