Does Pernod Ricard SA's (EPA:RI) Weak Fundamentals Mean A Downturn In Its Stock Should Be Expected?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
July 24, 2021
ENXTPA:RI
Source: Shutterstock

Most readers would already know that Pernod Ricard's (EPA:RI) stock increased by 7.4% over the past three months. However, its weak financial performance indicators makes us a bit doubtful if that trend could continue. In this article, we decided to focus on Pernod Ricard's ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

Check out our latest analysis for Pernod Ricard

How Is ROE Calculated?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Pernod Ricard is:

2.0% = €287m ÷ €15b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2020).

The 'return' is the profit over the last twelve months. One way to conceptualize this is that for each €1 of shareholders' capital it has, the company made €0.02 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Pernod Ricard's Earnings Growth And 2.0% ROE

It is quite clear that Pernod Ricard's ROE is rather low. An industry comparison shows that the company's ROE is not much different from the industry average of 2.3% either. Given the circumstances, the significant decline in net income by 9.6% seen by Pernod Ricard over the last five years is not surprising.

With the industry earnings declining at a rate of 8.8% in the same period, we deduce that both the company and the industry are shrinking at the same rate.

past-earnings-growth
ENXTPA:RI Past Earnings Growth July 24th 2021

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Is RI fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Pernod Ricard Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Pernod Ricard's declining earnings is not surprising given how the company is spending most of its profits in paying dividends, judging by its three-year median payout ratio of 56% (or a retention ratio of 44%). With only a little being reinvested into the business, earnings growth would obviously be low or non-existent. Our risks dashboard should have the 4 risks we have identified for Pernod Ricard.

In addition, Pernod Ricard has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 46% of its profits over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that Pernod Ricard's future ROE will rise to 12% even though the the company's payout ratio is not expected to change by much.

Summary

On the whole, Pernod Ricard's performance is quite a big let-down. As a result of its low ROE and lack of much reinvestment into the business, the company has seen a disappointing earnings growth rate. Having said that, looking at current analyst estimates, we found that the company's earnings growth rate is expected to see a huge improvement. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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