Investors in VINCI SA (EPA:DG) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.4% to close at €104 following the release of its annual results. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of €49b coming in 2.4% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of €5.82, in line with analyst appraisals. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether analysts have changed their mind on VINCI after the latest results.
Following last week's earnings report, VINCI's 13 analysts are forecasting 2020 revenues to be €49.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to accumulate 8.2% to €6.30. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of €49.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of €6.41 in 2020. So it's pretty clear that, although analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €107, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so - considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on VINCI, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €128 and the most bearish at €83.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Zooming out to look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up both against past performance, and against industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that analysts expect VINCI's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 1.1%, compared to a historical growth rate of 4.5% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the market, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.6% next year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that analysts still expect VINCI to grow slower than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with analysts reconfirming that earnings per share are expected to continue performing in line with their prior expectations. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that VINCI's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider market. The consensus price target held steady at €107, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on analysts' estimated valuations.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for VINCI going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also view our analysis of VINCI's balance sheet, and whether we think VINCI is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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VINCI SA, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the concessions, energy, and construction segments primarily in France.
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Good value with proven track record and pays a dividend.