Vinci (ENXTPA:DG) Valuation in Focus as Quarterly Growth and 2025 Outlook Support Investor Optimism

Vinci (ENXTPA:DG) just released third quarter results showing its revenue climbed 5% to €19.4 billion. Traffic at Vinci Airports also increased. The company reaffirmed its 2025 outlook and addressed France’s higher corporate tax charges.

See our latest analysis for Vinci.

Vinci’s solid quarterly revenue gains and growth in airport traffic have helped the company maintain strong operational momentum this year, even with higher French corporate taxes on the horizon. The shares now trade at €120.4, and recent momentum has delivered a 20.76% year-to-date share price return. Its total shareholder return of 20.94% over the past year shows long-term performance remains robust.

If Vinci's resilience has you rethinking what’s possible in the sector, why not broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With Vinci's growth and strong outlook already making headlines, investors now face a dilemma. Does the current share price offer real upside, or has the market already priced in the next wave of expansion?

Most Popular Narrative: 12.9% Undervalued

Analyst consensus suggests Vinci’s shares have room to run, with fair value sitting comfortably above the last closing price. What could be driving this bullish outlook?

Accelerating global infrastructure investment, especially for decarbonization and energy transition projects, is driving significant order intake and backlog growth (order book at record highs, major wins in renewables, high-voltage transmission, and PPP electrical distribution). This supports forward revenue visibility and potential for sustained top-line growth.

Read the complete narrative.

What’s behind this fair value target? The underlying factors are projected improvements in margins, forward-looking earnings power, and a controversial profit multiple more typical of market darlings than construction giants. Curious which numbers were bold enough to support the upside? The details may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of €138.24 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, uncertainty around French motorway contract renewals and the impact of rising taxes could limit Vinci's profit growth in the years ahead.

Find out about the key risks to this Vinci narrative.

Another View: DCF Model Provides a Reality Check

While analysts see Vinci as undervalued based on future profit multiples, our DCF model provides a different perspective. Using projected cash flows, the SWS DCF model suggests that Vinci shares are trading slightly above its fair value at present. This raises questions about how much upside may remain from this point.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Vinci for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Vinci Narrative

If you want to dig deeper or believe your research tells a different story, you can easily craft your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Vinci research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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