Alstom SA Just Missed EPS By 42%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

There's been a notable change in appetite for Alstom SA (EPA:ALO) shares in the week since its full-year report, with the stock down 13% to €19.21. Statutory earnings per share fell badly short of expectations, coming in at €0.31, some 42% below analyst forecasts, although revenues were okay, approximately in line with analyst estimates at €18b. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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After the latest results, the 13 analysts covering Alstom are now predicting revenues of €19.2b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a modest 3.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 291% to €1.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €19.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.32 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for Alstom

The consensus price target held steady at €23.26, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alstom at €33.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €9.00. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Alstom's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 3.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 18% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Alstom.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alstom. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Alstom going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Alstom you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.