Fortum Oyj Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Shareholders might have noticed that Fortum Oyj (HEL:FORTUM) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.0% to €13.65 in the past week. It looks to have been a decent result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at €1.1b, statutory earnings beat expectations by a notable 40%, coming in at €0.14 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Fortum Oyj

After the latest results, the consensus from Fortum Oyj's 15 analysts is for revenues of €5.70b in 2025, which would reflect a considerable 8.4% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 28% to €0.98 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €5.71b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.00 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €13.87, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Fortum Oyj analyst has a price target of €17.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €11.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would also point out that the forecast 6.8% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025 is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink 24% annually over the past five years By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 1.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Fortum Oyj to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Fortum Oyj going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Fortum Oyj (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.