Earnings Miss: Finnair Oyj Missed EPS By 18% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

The quarterly results for Finnair Oyj (HEL:FIA1S) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at €835m, although statutory earnings per share came in 18% below what the analysts expected, at €0.15 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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After the latest results, the three analysts covering Finnair Oyj are now predicting revenues of €3.22b in 2026. If met, this would reflect a satisfactory 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Finnair Oyj is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of €0.41 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €3.26b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.41 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Finnair Oyj

The consensus price target fell 7.9% to €2.53, suggesting that the analysts might have been a bit enthusiastic in their previous valuation - or they were expecting the company to provide stronger guidance in the quarterly results. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Finnair Oyj analyst has a price target of €2.70 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €2.40. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Finnair Oyj's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 28% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Finnair Oyj is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Finnair Oyj. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Finnair Oyj going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also view our analysis of Finnair Oyj's balance sheet, and whether we think Finnair Oyj is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.