Nokia Oyj Just Missed EPS By 37%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Nokia Oyj (HEL:NOKIA) missed earnings with its latest third-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with €4.3b revenue coming in 9.7% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €0.03 missed the mark badly, arriving some 37% below what was expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for Nokia Oyj

Following last week's earnings report, Nokia Oyj's 20 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €19.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 47% to €0.25. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €20.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.25 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €4.09. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Nokia Oyj, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €6.00 and the most bearish at €2.90 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. From these estimates it looks as though the analysts expect the years of declining revenue to come to an end, given the flat forecast out to 2025. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen revenue shrink 0.9% annually. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.3% per year. Although Nokia Oyj's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Nokia Oyj going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 3 warning signs for Nokia Oyj that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.