Tokmanni (HLSE:TOKMAN): Valuation Insights After Guidance Cut, Dividend Suspension, and Share Price Drop

Tokmanni Group Oyj (HLSE:TOKMAN) made headlines after its Q3 2025 update, where revenue climbed; however, net income fell sharply. The company responded by lowering its annual revenue outlook and suspending a second dividend payment.

See our latest analysis for Tokmanni Group Oyj.

Tokmanni Group Oyj’s most recent news has clearly rattled investors, with the share price falling over 20% in the last week alone as markets absorbed guidance cuts and the deferred dividend. Momentum has faded throughout 2025, which has contributed to a steeper year-to-date share price return of -43%, and a one-year total shareholder return of -37%. This puts longer-term performance in firmly negative territory.

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But with the share price now trading well below analyst targets and at a substantial discount to estimated intrinsic value, investors are left wondering if Tokmanni is a bargain after recent turbulence or if the market is already bracing for tougher times ahead.

Most Popular Narrative: 12% Undervalued

Tokmanni Group Oyj’s current fair value estimate stands at €7.93, according to the most widely followed narrative. This figure exceeds the recent closing price of €6.96. This gap has created a sense of opportunity as investors debate whether the stock is discounting too much negativity or if the market is simply anticipating more headwinds ahead.

"Ongoing investments in supply chain optimization and the integration of new warehouse, replenishment, and forecasting systems across both Tokmanni and Dollarstore segments are positioned to drive operational efficiencies and cost savings in the medium to long term. This supports future margin expansion and EBITDA growth."

Read the complete narrative.

Want a peek behind that price tag? This narrative makes bold calls on how Tokmanni’s future margins, top-line momentum, and profitability could all shift. Think rapid earnings recovery and a future profit multiple not seen in most discount retailers. Ready to see what’s fueling this surprising upside forecast?

Result: Fair Value of €7.93 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent margin pressure and challenges integrating new acquisitions could easily undermine the optimism around Tokmanni’s long-term growth prospects.

Find out about the key risks to this Tokmanni Group Oyj narrative.

Build Your Own Tokmanni Group Oyj Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig deeper into the numbers yourself, you can build your own view in just minutes, and Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Tokmanni Group Oyj research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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