Stock Analysis

Shareholders Of Ilkka-Yhtymä Oyj (HEL:ILK2S) Must Be Happy With Their 152% Total Return

HLSE:ILKKA2
Source: Shutterstock

When we invest, we're generally looking for stocks that outperform the market average. And while active stock picking involves risks (and requires diversification) it can also provide excess returns. For example, the Ilkka-Yhtymä Oyj (HEL:ILK2S) share price is up 87% in the last 5 years, clearly besting the market return of around 23% (ignoring dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 14% in the last year , including dividends .

Check out our latest analysis for Ilkka-Yhtymä Oyj

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Ilkka-Yhtymä Oyj actually saw its EPS drop 19% per year.

Essentially, it doesn't seem likely that investors are focused on EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

We note that the dividend is higher than it was previously - always nice to see. Maybe dividend investors have helped support the share price.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
HLSE:ILK2S Earnings and Revenue Growth December 22nd 2020

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Ilkka-Yhtymä Oyj, it has a TSR of 152% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Ilkka-Yhtymä Oyj's TSR for the year was broadly in line with the market average, at 14%. It has to be noted that the recent return falls short of the 20% shareholders have gained each year, over half a decade. Although the share price growth has slowed, the longer term story points to a business well worth watching. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Ilkka-Yhtymä Oyj better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Ilkka-Yhtymä Oyj that you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on FI exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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