UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) Stock's Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Decent: Will The Market Correct The Share Price In The Future?

By
Simply Wall St
Published
May 09, 2022
HLSE:UPM
Source: Shutterstock

With its stock down 4.5% over the past week, it is easy to disregard UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM). However, the company's fundamentals look pretty decent, and long-term financials are usually aligned with future market price movements. Particularly, we will be paying attention to UPM-Kymmene Oyj's ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for UPM-Kymmene Oyj

How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for UPM-Kymmene Oyj is:

11% = €1.2b ÷ €11b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2022).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every €1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of €0.11.

What Has ROE Got To Do With Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Earnings Growth And 11% ROE

To start with, UPM-Kymmene Oyj's ROE looks acceptable. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 13%. As you might expect, the 2.2% net income decline reported by UPM-Kymmene Oyj is a bit of a surprise. Based on this, we feel that there might be other reasons which haven't been discussed so far in this article that could be hampering the company's growth. These include low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

That being said, we compared UPM-Kymmene Oyj's performance with the industry and were concerned when we found that while the company has shrunk its earnings, the industry has grown its earnings at a rate of 9.4% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
HLSE:UPM Past Earnings Growth May 9th 2022

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Has the market priced in the future outlook for UPM? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

UPM-Kymmene Oyj has a high three-year median payout ratio of 65% (that is, it is retaining 35% of its profits). This suggests that the company is paying most of its profits as dividends to its shareholders. This goes some way in explaining why its earnings have been shrinking. With only very little left to reinvest into the business, growth in earnings is far from likely.

In addition, UPM-Kymmene Oyj has been paying dividends over a period of at least ten years suggesting that keeping up dividend payments is way more important to the management even if it comes at the cost of business growth. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 53%. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that UPM-Kymmene Oyj's future ROE will be 12% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Summary

Overall, we feel that UPM-Kymmene Oyj certainly does have some positive factors to consider. However, while the company does have a high ROE, its earnings growth number is quite disappointing. This can be blamed on the fact that it reinvests only a small portion of its profits and pays out the rest as dividends. With that said, we studied the latest analyst forecasts and found that while the company has shrunk its earnings in the past, analysts expect its earnings to grow in the future. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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