Outokumpu Oyj (HEL:OUT1V) Just Reported Second-Quarter Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Outokumpu Oyj (HEL:OUT1V) just released its latest second-quarter report and things are not looking great. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of €1.5b missing analyst predictions by 3.6%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of €0.04 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following the latest results, Outokumpu Oyj's twelve analysts are now forecasting revenues of €6.15b in 2025. This would be a credible 3.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory losses are anticipated to increase substantially, hitting €0.094 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €6.29b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.0013 in 2025. There looks to have been a significant drop in sentiment regarding Outokumpu Oyj's prospects after these latest results, with a minor downgrade to revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.

View our latest analysis for Outokumpu Oyj

The average price target was broadly unchanged at €3.51, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Outokumpu Oyj, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €4.50 and the most bearish at €2.50 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Outokumpu Oyj's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.3% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.06% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.3% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Outokumpu Oyj to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Outokumpu Oyj to become unprofitable next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €3.51, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Outokumpu Oyj going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Outokumpu Oyj , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.