Sampo (HLSE:SAMPO): Assessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Gains

Recent performance and market context

Sampo Oyj (HLSE:SAMPO) has quietly extended its upward trend, with the share price up about 3 % over the past month and roughly 6 % in the past 3 months, drawing fresh interest from income focused investors.

See our latest analysis for Sampo Oyj.

That steady 28.46 % year to date share price return, alongside a robust 35.86 % one year total shareholder return when dividends are included, suggests momentum is quietly building as investors lean into Sampo Oyj’s insurance earnings and cash generation story.

If Sampo’s climb has you thinking about what else might rerate, now is a good time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential next candidates for your watchlist.

Yet with Sampo trading close to analyst targets but still at an estimated near 30 % intrinsic discount, the key question now is simple: is this a genuine value opportunity or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.2% Undervalued

With Sampo Oyj closing at €10.20 versus a narrative fair value of about €10.64, the valuation gap is narrow but still points upward.

Ongoing investments in digital distribution, automation, and analytics are driving margin expansion through improved underwriting quality, lower cost ratios, and enhanced claims management, supporting higher net margins and bottom line earnings.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see the engine behind that uplift? The narrative focuses on rising margins, steady revenue compounding, and a punchy future earnings multiple. Curious how those elements combine into today’s fair value math? Read on to see what assumptions really sit under that price.

Result: Fair Value of €10.64 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, concentrated Nordic exposure and rising climate related claims could pressure profitability. This may test whether today’s margin and valuation assumptions still hold.

Find out about the key risks to this Sampo Oyj narrative.

Another View: Market Ratios Flash Caution

Our fair value work points to upside, but the earnings multiple tells a different story. Sampo trades on 16.6 times earnings versus 11.9 times for peers and 13 times for the wider European insurance group, even though our fair ratio sits lower at 18.5 times. Is the multiple signaling valuation risk rather than opportunity?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Sampo Oyj Narrative

If you see the story differently, or simply want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a personalised view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Sampo Oyj research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for your next investment move?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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