Sampo Oyj (HLSE:SAMPO) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of SAMPO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

SAMPO (€45.07) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (€73.29)

SAMPO fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	3/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	3/6
Dividends	3/6

SAMPO Stock Overview

Sampo Oyj, through its subsidiaries, provides life and non-life insurance products and services in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and the Baltic countries.

Rewards

Trading at 38.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 312.2% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 6.6% per year for the next 3 years

High level of non-cash earnings

Dividend of 4.66% is not well covered by earnings

Sampo Oyj Competitors

China Pacific Insurance (Group)

SHSE:601601

CN¥176.7b

Assicurazioni Generali

BIT:G

€24.3b

Hartford Financial Services Group

NYSE:HIG

US$21.9b

American International Group

NYSE:AIG

US$42.8b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Sampo Oyj
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	€45.07
52 Week High	€48.74
52 Week Low	€35.85
Beta	0.92
1 Month Change	9.37%
3 Month Change	-1.14%
1 Year Change	3.21%
3 Year Change	22.54%
5 Year Change	1.28%
Change since IPO	988.39%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 06

Is Now The Time To Put Sampo Oyj (HEL:SAMPO) On Your Watchlist?

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...

Shareholder Returns

	SAMPO	FI Insurance	FI Market
7D	2.1%	3.2%	2.0%
1Y	3.2%	-7.4%	-18.6%

Return vs Industry: SAMPO exceeded the Finnish Insurance industry which returned -7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: SAMPO exceeded the Finnish Market which returned -18.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is SAMPO's price volatile compared to industry and market?
SAMPO volatility
SAMPO Average Weekly Movement	4.1%
Insurance Industry Average Movement	4.0%
Market Average Movement	5.0%
10% most volatile stocks in FI Market	8.8%
10% least volatile stocks in FI Market	3.3%

Stable Share Price: SAMPO is less volatile than 75% of Finnish stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: SAMPO's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1909	13,697	Torbjorn Magnusson	https://www.sampo.com

Sampo Oyj, through its subsidiaries, provides life and non-life insurance products and services in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and the Baltic countries. It operates through If, Topdanmark, Hastings, Mandatum, and Holding segments. The company offers household, homeowner, motor, accident, travel, boat, forest, livestock, property, casualty, liability, car, van, bike, and cargo insurance.

Sampo Oyj Fundamentals Summary

How do Sampo Oyj's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
SAMPO fundamental statistics
Market Cap	€23.77b
Earnings (TTM)	€2.43b
Revenue (TTM)	€10.31b

9.8x

P/E Ratio

2.3x

P/S Ratio

Is SAMPO overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
SAMPO income statement (TTM)
Revenue	€10.31b
Cost of Revenue	€5.69b
Gross Profit	€4.62b
Other Expenses	€2.19b
Earnings	€2.43b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Nov 02, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	4.61
Gross Margin	44.83%
Net Profit Margin	23.59%
Debt/Equity Ratio	42.9%

How did SAMPO perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.7%

Current Dividend Yield

47%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is SAMPO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SAMPO?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for SAMPO. This is calculated by dividing SAMPO's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is SAMPO's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	€23.77b

SAMPO key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7.8x
PEG Ratio	-1.5x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SAMPO's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

SAMPO PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for SAMPO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	7.7x
601601 China Pacific Insurance (Group)	8.1x	16.1%	CN¥176.7b
G Assicurazioni Generali	9x	7.1%	€24.3b
HIG Hartford Financial Services Group	10.5x	16.4%	US$21.9b
AIG American International Group	3.4x	-5.8%	US$42.8b
SAMPO Sampo Oyj	9.8x	-6.6%	€23.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SAMPO is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the peer average (7.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SAMPO's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SAMPO is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.8x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (10.8x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SAMPO's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SAMPO PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	9.8x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate SAMPO's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SAMPO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SAMPO (€45.07) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€73.29)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SAMPO is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Future Growth

How is Sampo Oyj forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 12 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-6.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: SAMPO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6.6% per year).

Earnings vs Market: SAMPO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-6.6% per year).

High Growth Earnings: SAMPO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: SAMPO's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-7.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: SAMPO's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-7.2% per year).

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: SAMPO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (17.1%).

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Past Performance

How has Sampo Oyj performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-8.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: SAMPO has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: SAMPO's current net profit margins (23.6%) are higher than last year (5%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: SAMPO's earnings have declined by 8.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: SAMPO's earnings growth over the past year (312.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (-8.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: SAMPO earnings growth over the past year (312.2%) exceeded the Insurance industry 8.4%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: SAMPO's Return on Equity (25.3%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is Sampo Oyj's financial position?

Financial Health Score

3/6

Financial Health Score 3/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: SAMPO's short term assets (€21.0B) do not cover its short term liabilities (€29.3B).

Long Term Liabilities: SAMPO's short term assets (€21.0B) exceed its long term liabilities (€16.8B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: SAMPO has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: SAMPO's debt to equity ratio has increased from 30.6% to 42.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: SAMPO's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: SAMPO's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (18.3x coverage).

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Sampo Oyj current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

3/6

Dividend Score 3/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

4.66%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: SAMPO's dividend (4.66%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the Finnish market (2.39%).

High Dividend: SAMPO's dividend (4.66%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Finnish market (4.75%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: SAMPO's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: SAMPO's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (47.1%), SAMPO's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: SAMPO is paying a dividend but the company has no free cash flows.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

16.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Torbjorn Magnusson (59 yo)

18.58yrs

Tenure

€2,511,000

Compensation

Mr. Torbjorn Magnusson has been the Group President and Chief Executive Officer of Sampo Oyj since January 01, 2020. Mr. Magnusson serves as Director at Hastings Group Holdings Limited since November 16, 2...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: SAMPO's management team is seasoned and experienced (16.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: SAMPO's board of directors are considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/11 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31