Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, HKScan Oyj (HEL:HKSAV) does carry debt. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does HKScan Oyj Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at September 2022 HKScan Oyj had debt of €261.2m, up from €228.7m in one year. However, it does have €6.20m in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €255.0m.
A Look At HKScan Oyj's Liabilities
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that HKScan Oyj had liabilities of €390.9m due within 12 months and liabilities of €297.2m due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €6.20m as well as receivables valued at €179.5m due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling €502.4m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the €82.0m company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, HKScan Oyj would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Weak interest cover of 0.17 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.1 hit our confidence in HKScan Oyj like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, HKScan Oyj saw its EBIT tank 93% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since HKScan Oyj will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, HKScan Oyj burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Our View
To be frank both HKScan Oyj's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And furthermore, its interest cover also fails to instill confidence. It looks to us like HKScan Oyj carries a significant balance sheet burden. If you harvest honey without a bee suit, you risk getting stung, so we'd probably stay away from this particular stock. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. These risks can be hard to spot. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for HKScan Oyj (of which 2 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About HLSE:HKFOODS
HKFoods Oyj
Operates as a food company in Finland, Sweden, Poland, and Denmark.
Undervalued with excellent balance sheet.