An Intrinsic Calculation For Compañía de Distribución Integral Logista Holdings, S.A. (BME:LOG) Suggests It's 39% Undervalued

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Compañía de Distribución Integral Logista Holdings, S.A. (BME:LOG) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Compañía de Distribución Integral Logista Holdings

The calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€205.8m	€228.1m	€233.7m	€238.1m	€242.1m	€245.7m	€249.0m	€252.2m	€255.3m	€258.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x4	Analyst x7	Analyst x6	Est @ 1.89%	Est @ 1.65%	Est @ 1.49%	Est @ 1.37%	Est @ 1.29%	Est @ 1.23%	Est @ 1.19%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6%	€191	€197	€188	€178	€168	€158	€149	€140	€132	€124

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €1.6b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 1.1%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₀ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €258m× (1 + 1.1%) ÷ (7.6%– 1.1%) = €4.0b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €4.0b÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)¹⁰= €1.9b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €3.6b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €16.5, the company appears quite undervalued at a 39% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Compañía de Distribución Integral Logista Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.857. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Compañía de Distribución Integral Logista Holdings, there are three important aspects you should further research:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Compañía de Distribución Integral Logista Holdings that you should be aware of.
2. Future Earnings: How does LOG's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the BME every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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