Meliá Hotels International, S.A. (BME:MEL) Just Released Its Third-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

Meliá Hotels International, S.A. (BME:MEL) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.0% to €7.18 in the week after its latest quarterly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of €617m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Meliá Hotels International surprised by delivering a statutory profit of €0.34 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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Following the latest results, Meliá Hotels International's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of €2.15b in 2026. This would be an okay 3.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to shrink 8.2% to €0.72 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €2.15b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.72 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

View our latest analysis for Meliá Hotels International

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at €9.25. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Meliá Hotels International, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €11.00 and the most bearish at €6.54 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Meliá Hotels International shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Meliá Hotels International's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 2.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 25% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Meliá Hotels International is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Meliá Hotels International's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Meliá Hotels International. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Meliá Hotels International going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Meliá Hotels International that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.