Revenue Beat: Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. Exceeded Revenue Forecasts By 11% And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Investors in Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, S.A. (BME:PSG) had a good week, as its shares rose 9.6% to close at €2.69 following the release of its first-quarter results. It was a mildly positive result, with revenues exceeding expectations at €1.3b, while statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €0.15 were in line with analyst forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Following last week's earnings report, Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad's six analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be €5.10b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 40% to €0.23. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €4.96b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.24 in 2025. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad after the latest results; whilethe analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.

Check out our latest analysis for Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad

The analysts also upgraded Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad's price target 12% to €2.56, implying that the higher revenue expected to generate enough value to offset the forecast decline in earnings. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €3.13 and the most bearish at €1.75 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.0% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 4.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.