Prosegur (BME:PSG): Assessing Value After Recent Mixed Share Price Performance

Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad (BME:PSG) has caught some attention after a stretch of mixed returns, with shares up 6% over the past month but still down over the past 3 months. Investors are now watching for signals that could influence the stock’s next move.

See our latest analysis for Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad.

After surging more than 65% year-to-date, Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad has seen its momentum waver, with the 1-month share price return of 6.2% partially offsetting a 7.5% decline over the prior quarter. That said, long-term shareholders have enjoyed a 58% total return over the past year, which is evidence that even with recent dips, the bigger trend has stayed positive.

If you're weighing up where momentum could turn next, it might be worth broadening your view and discovering fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

The question now is whether Prosegur’s recent pullback signals underlying value that the market is overlooking, or if future growth is already reflected in the current share price, leaving little room for upside.

Most Popular Narrative: 10.7% Undervalued

With Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad trading at €2.84 and the most popular valuation narrative setting fair value close to €3.18, the gap suggests notable upside potential as seen by consensus analysts. The current price stands below where these forecasts expect the stock to be valued, hinting at optimism for further gains.

Expansion in the U.S. and APAC regions, where both security and cash businesses are growing at above-average rates, positions Prosegur to capitalize on rising urbanization and asset concentration in high-growth markets. This supports future revenue growth and geographic diversification. Increasing share of technology-enabled services (notably in Security and Alarm businesses, where high-end tech solutions and connections exceeded 1 million) leverages the industry shift toward digital, integrated security. This trend is expected to drive higher-margin offerings and improved net margins over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Why does the market see more value ahead? The catalysts behind this valuation include optimism in core business mix and certain bold growth projections that diverge sharply from historical performance trends. Curious about the ambitious financial milestones and high-margin transformation driving the headline price? See what else is fueling this target in the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of €3.18 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks such as ongoing macro instability in key markets and shifts toward cashless economies could challenge Prosegur’s growth and the bullish valuation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad narrative.

Build Your Own Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers on your own terms, you can shape your own view quickly and independently. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Prosegur Compañía de Seguridad research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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