Gestamp Automoción, S.A. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Last week, you might have seen that Gestamp Automoción, S.A. (BME:GEST) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.8% to €2.66 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of €12b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 6.3% to hit €0.33 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Gestamp Automoción

Taking into account the latest results, Gestamp Automoción's ten analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €12.3b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 37% to €0.45. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €12.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.49 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at €3.29, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Gestamp Automoción at €4.40 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €2.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Gestamp Automoción's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 1.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 11% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Gestamp Automoción.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €3.29, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Gestamp Automoción. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Gestamp Automoción analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 3 warning signs for Gestamp Automoción (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.