Egypt Aluminum (CASE:EGAL) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of EGAL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

EGAL (EGP19.01) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (EGP39.94)

EGAL fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	0/6
Past Performance	4/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	0/6

EGAL Stock Overview

Egypt Aluminum produces and sells aluminum products.

Rewards

Trading at 52.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings grew by 9747.2% over the past year

Trading at good value vs. peer average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading at good value vs. industry average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Risk Analysis

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 58.7% per year for the next 3 years

High level of non-cash earnings

Egypt Aluminum Competitors

Arab Aluminum Company (S.A.E)

CASE:ALUM

ج.م155.2m

Ezz Steel Company (S.A.E)

CASE:ESRS

ج.م7.3b

Al Ezz Dekheila Steel Company - AlexandriaE

CASE:IRAX

ج.م12.9b

Alexandria Mineral Oils

CASE:AMOC

ج.م5.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Egypt Aluminum
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	ج.م19.01
52 Week High	ج.م31.60
52 Week Low	ج.م13.60
Beta	1.15
1 Month Change	10.20%
3 Month Change	23.20%
1 Year Change	-27.33%
3 Year Change	67.05%
5 Year Change	-54.39%
Change since IPO	295.74%

Shareholder Returns

	EGAL	EG Metals and Mining	EG Market
7D	-6.5%	-5.4%	-1.2%
1Y	-27.3%	1.4%	-12.6%

Return vs Industry: EGAL underperformed the EG Metals and Mining industry which returned 1.4% over the past year.

Return vs Market: EGAL underperformed the EG Market which returned -12.1% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is EGAL's price volatile compared to industry and market?
EGAL volatility
EGAL Average Weekly Movement	6.4%
Metals and Mining Industry Average Movement	6.4%
Market Average Movement	5.9%
10% most volatile stocks in EG Market	9.9%
10% least volatile stocks in EG Market	3.2%

Stable Share Price: EGAL is not significantly more volatile than the rest of EG stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 6% a week.

Volatility Over Time: EGAL's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1969	5,243	n/a	https://www.egyptalum.com.eg

Egypt Aluminum produces and sells aluminum products. Its products include roaster charcoal, anodic blocks, aluminum alloy, T-bar and templates, cylinders, aluminum alloy, and wires. The company also offers cold rolled products comprising of coils, tread plates, embossed, sheets, discs, and squares, as well as provides hot rolled products.

Egypt Aluminum Fundamentals Summary

How do Egypt Aluminum's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
EGAL fundamental statistics
Market Cap	ج.م7.84b
Earnings (TTM)	ج.م2.50b
Revenue (TTM)	ج.م14.48b

3.1x

P/E Ratio

0.5x

P/S Ratio

Is EGAL overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
EGAL income statement (TTM)
Revenue	ج.م14.48b
Cost of Revenue	ج.م10.96b
Gross Profit	ج.م3.52b
Other Expenses	ج.م1.02b
Earnings	ج.م2.50b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	6.06
Gross Margin	24.29%
Net Profit Margin	17.27%
Debt/Equity Ratio	26.7%

How did EGAL perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is EGAL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EGAL?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for EGAL. This is calculated by dividing EGAL's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is EGAL's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	ج.م7.84b

EGAL key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	2.7x
PEG Ratio	-0.05x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EGAL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

EGAL PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for EGAL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	4x
ALUM Arab Aluminum Company (S.A.E)	7.4x	n/a	ج.م155.2m
ESRS Ezz Steel Company (S.A.E)	1.6x	-40.9%	ج.م7.3b
IRAX Al Ezz Dekheila Steel Company - AlexandriaE	2.2x	n/a	ج.م12.9b
AMOC Alexandria Mineral Oils	5x	19.7%	ج.م5.3b
EGAL Egypt Aluminum	3.1x	-58.7%	ج.م7.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EGAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.1x) compared to the peer average (4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EGAL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Metals and Mining Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EGAL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.1x) compared to the African Metals and Mining industry average (5.7x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EGAL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EGAL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.1x
Fair PE Ratio	1.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EGAL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (1.9x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EGAL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EGAL (EGP19.01) is trading below our estimate of fair value (EGP39.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EGAL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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Future Growth

How is Egypt Aluminum forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 1 analyst?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

-58.7%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: EGAL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-58.7% per year).

Earnings vs Market: EGAL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-58.7% per year).

High Growth Earnings: EGAL's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: EGAL's revenue (5.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the EG market (10.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: EGAL's revenue (5.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: EGAL's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (9.3%).

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Past Performance

How has Egypt Aluminum performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

4/6

Past Performance Score 4/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-27.9%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: EGAL has a high level of non-cash earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: EGAL's current net profit margins (17.3%) are higher than last year (0.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: EGAL's earnings have declined by 27.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: EGAL's earnings growth over the past year (9747.2%) exceeds its 5-year average (-27.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: EGAL earnings growth over the past year (9747.2%) exceeded the Metals and Mining industry -4.5%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: EGAL's Return on Equity (32.3%) is considered high.

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Financial Health

How is Egypt Aluminum's financial position?

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: EGAL's short term assets (EGP10.6B) exceed its short term liabilities (EGP5.1B).

Long Term Liabilities: EGAL's short term assets (EGP10.6B) exceed its long term liabilities (EGP162.4M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: EGAL has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: EGAL's debt to equity ratio has increased from 5% to 26.7% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: EGAL's operating cash flow is negative, therefore debt is not well covered.

Interest Coverage: EGAL earns more interest than it pays, so coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is Egypt Aluminum current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

4.60%

Forecast Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate EGAL's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate EGAL's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EGAL's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if EGAL's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: EGAL is not paying a notable dividend for the EG market.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as EGAL has not reported any payouts.

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Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

CEO

Egypt Aluminum has no CEO, or we have no data on them.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 3 shareholders own 92.5% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
92.04%	Metallurgical Industries Co.	379,653,435	EGP7.2b	0%	no data
0.37%	Norges Bank Investment Management	1,543,485	EGP29.3m	0%	no data
0.088%	Azimut (DIFC) Limited, Asset Management Arm	361,805	EGP6.9m	-12.98%	2.07%

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/09/23 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/09/22 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2022/06/30