Qatar National Bank Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of QNBE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

QNBE (EGP35) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (EGP16.81)

Is QNBE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of QNBE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: QNBE (EGP35) is trading above our estimate of fair value (EGP16.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: QNBE is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for QNBE?

Key metric: As QNBE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for QNBE. This is calculated by dividing QNBE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is QNBE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	4x
Earnings	ج.م18.74b
Market Cap	ج.م75.42b

QNBE key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does QNBE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for QNBE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	3.3x
CIEB Credit Agricole - Egypt Bank (S.A.E.)	3.6x	4.2%	ج.م27.1b
HDBK Housing and Development Bank- Egypt (S.A.E)	2.5x	-5.4%	ج.م28.2b
ADIB Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank - Egypt -E	3.2x	1.1%	ج.م25.4b
FAITA Faisal Islamic Bank of Egypt	3.8x	n/a	US$588.5m
QNBE Qatar National Bank	4x	11.8%	ج.م75.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: QNBE is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the peer average (3.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does QNBE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the African Banks Industry?

6 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

6 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: QNBE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the African Banks industry average (5.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is QNBE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

QNBE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	4x
Fair PE Ratio	4.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: QNBE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (4.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst QNBE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ج.م35.00	ج.م48.80 +39.4%	15.3%	ج.م60.00	ج.م39.80	n/a	4
Nov ’25	ج.م31.20	ج.م48.80 +56.4%	15.3%	ج.م60.00	ج.م39.80	n/a	4
Oct ’25	ج.م31.54	ج.م48.80 +54.7%	15.3%	ج.م60.00	ج.م39.80	n/a	4
Sep ’25	ج.م27.41	ج.م48.80 +78.0%	15.3%	ج.م60.00	ج.م39.80	n/a	4
Aug ’25	ج.م28.76	ج.م48.80 +69.7%	15.3%	ج.م60.00	ج.م39.80	n/a	4
Jul ’25	ج.م30.24	ج.م51.30 +69.6%	13.8%	ج.م60.00	ج.م40.60	n/a	4
Jun ’25	ج.م29.40	ج.م51.30 +74.5%	13.8%	ج.م60.00	ج.م40.60	n/a	4
May ’25	ج.م31.32	ج.م49.63 +58.4%	15.8%	ج.م60.00	ج.م40.60	n/a	4
Apr ’25	ج.م32.01	ج.م44.75 +39.8%	12.6%	ج.م54.30	ج.م40.50	n/a	4
Mar ’25	ج.م36.01	ج.م44.75 +24.3%	12.6%	ج.م54.30	ج.م40.50	n/a	4
Feb ’25	ج.م40.58	ج.م44.75 +10.3%	12.6%	ج.م54.30	ج.م40.50	n/a	4
Jan ’25	ج.م28.17	ج.م40.78 +44.7%	4.5%	ج.م43.60	ج.م38.40	n/a	4
Dec ’24	ج.م27.98	ج.م34.58 +23.6%	15.0%	ج.م40.50	ج.م27.40	n/a	4
Nov ’24	ج.م25.11	ج.م34.58 +37.7%	15.0%	ج.م40.50	ج.م27.40	ج.م31.20	4
Oct ’24	ج.م21.99	ج.م30.88 +40.4%	17.3%	ج.م40.50	ج.م25.00	ج.م31.54	5
Sep ’24	ج.م20.70	ج.م28.78 +39.0%	8.3%	ج.م32.00	ج.م25.00	ج.م27.41	5
Aug ’24	ج.م20.93	ج.م28.22 +34.8%	6.5%	ج.م30.00	ج.م25.00	ج.م28.76	5
Jul ’24	ج.م20.14	ج.م27.77 +37.9%	6.3%	ج.م30.00	ج.م25.00	ج.م30.24	5
Jun ’24	ج.م19.04	ج.م27.77 +45.8%	6.3%	ج.م30.00	ج.م25.00	ج.م29.40	5
May ’24	ج.م18.03	ج.م27.77 +54.0%	6.3%	ج.م30.00	ج.م25.00	ج.م31.32	5
Apr ’24	ج.م17.19	ج.م27.66 +60.9%	6.4%	ج.م30.00	ج.م25.00	ج.م32.01	5
Mar ’24	ج.م20.58	ج.م25.86 +25.7%	10.7%	ج.م29.20	ج.م21.00	ج.م36.01	5
Feb ’24	ج.م19.34	ج.م24.78 +28.1%	9.2%	ج.م26.70	ج.م21.00	ج.م40.58	4
Jan ’24	ج.م17.40	ج.م25.58 +47.0%	12.5%	ج.م29.90	ج.م21.00	ج.م28.17	4
Dec ’23	ج.م18.02	ج.م24.38 +35.3%	8.3%	ج.م26.40	ج.م21.00	ج.م27.98	4
Nov ’23	ج.م16.76	ج.م24.38 +45.4%	8.3%	ج.م26.40	ج.م21.00	ج.م25.11	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.