Results: A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts

Last week, you might have seen that A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (CPH:MAERSK B) released its first-quarter result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.0% to kr.11,360 in the past week. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$13b were in line with what the analysts predicted, A.P. Møller - Mærsk surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$74.00 per share, a notable 17% above expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the 17 analysts covering A.P. Møller - Mærsk provided consensus estimates of US$49.7b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a chunky 12% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 85% to US$71.01 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$50.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$84.55 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a real cut to EPS estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for A.P. Møller - Mærsk

The consensus price target held steady at kr.10,401, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values A.P. Møller - Mærsk at kr.14,021 per share, while the most bearish prices it at kr.7,912. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 16% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 5.7% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 0.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that A.P. Møller - Mærsk's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that A.P. Møller - Mærsk is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr.10,401, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for A.P. Møller - Mærsk going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 3 warning signs with A.P. Møller - Mærsk (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.