Stock Analysis

A.P. Møller - Mærsk (CPH:MAERSK B) shareholders have earned a 39% CAGR over the last three years

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CPSE:MAERSK B
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Some A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S (CPH:MAERSK B) shareholders are probably rather concerned to see the share price fall 31% over the last three months. In contrast the stock is up over the last three years. However, it's unlikely many shareholders are elated with the share price gain of 67% over that time, given the rising market.

Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.

Check out our latest analysis for A.P. Møller - Mærsk

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During three years of share price growth, A.P. Møller - Mærsk achieved compound earnings per share growth of 236% per year. The average annual share price increase of 19% is actually lower than the EPS growth. So it seems investors have become more cautious about the company, over time. We'd venture the lowish P/E ratio of 1.16 also reflects the negative sentiment around the stock.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-per-share-growth
CPSE:MAERSK B Earnings Per Share Growth May 30th 2023

It is of course excellent to see how A.P. Møller - Mærsk has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of A.P. Møller - Mærsk, it has a TSR of 166% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 20% in the last year, A.P. Møller - Mærsk shareholders lost 20% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 17%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that A.P. Møller - Mærsk is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is a bit concerning...

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Danish exchanges.

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