A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S ( CPH:MAERSK B ) came out with its yearly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues of US$40b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at US$145, missing estimates by 6.3%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for A.P. Møller - Mærsk

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from A.P. Møller - Mærsk's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$43.4b in 2021, which would reflect a notable 9.2% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to jump 61% to US$235. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$43.1b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$232 in 2021. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$2,482, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic A.P. Møller - Mærsk analyst has a price target of US$3,253 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$1,590. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that A.P. Møller - Mærsk's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 9.2% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.0%p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.6% next year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect A.P. Møller - Mærsk to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on A.P. Møller - Mærsk. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple A.P. Møller - Mærsk analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for A.P. Møller - Mærsk you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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