Bavarian Nordic (CPSE:BAVA): Updated Valuation After Strong Q3 Results and Refined 2025 Outlook

Bavarian Nordic (CPSE:BAVA) drew investor focus after releasing its third quarter and nine-month 2025 results. The report showed a sharp rise in both sales and net income compared to last year. The company also updated its full-year outlook.

See our latest analysis for Bavarian Nordic.

Following upbeat earnings and a strengthened outlook, Bavarian Nordic’s share price has faced stiff headwinds. The 30-day return is -23.54%, and the year-to-date decline is 8.12%. Over the past year, the total shareholder return is down 5.34%, reflecting lingering caution even as new leadership steps in and the company remains active at key healthcare events. The near-term selloff suggests investors want to see further consistent improvements to reignite momentum.

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With such a dramatic turnaround in profitability and a share price still well below analyst targets, the question now is whether Bavarian Nordic is trading at a discount with room for upside, or if the market is already factoring in its future growth. Is this an opportunity to buy or have expectations already been priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 26.9% Undervalued

Bavarian Nordic’s narrative fair value stands at DKK250, a meaningful premium to its last close of DKK182.75. The stage is set for a significant debate about whether current earnings strength and future growth are enough to support this upside.

The company’s recent revenue surge and margin strength are heavily anchored in exceptional short-term demand for travel health and public preparedness vaccines. This demand may be unsustainable as contract wins and outbreak-based orders normalize. This could lead to a flattening or decline in revenues and/or increased volatility in future earnings as pandemic and epidemic fears subside.

Read the complete narrative.

Why are analysts so bullish? The answer lies in the narrative’s bold profit and margin assumptions despite looming headwinds. Discover which key projections and controversial bets keep this fair value so far above the current share price.

Result: Fair Value of DKK250 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, strong sales of key vaccines and successful new launches could result in more resilient growth than current forecasts suggest. This could challenge prevailing caution in the market.

Find out about the key risks to this Bavarian Nordic narrative.

Build Your Own Bavarian Nordic Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to draw your own conclusions, it’s quick and easy to craft your personal narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Bavarian Nordic research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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