Bavarian Nordic A/S Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Bavarian Nordic A/S (CPH:BAVA) came out with its yearly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of kr.5.7b were what the analysts expected, Bavarian Nordic surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of kr.12.60 per share, an impressive 24% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Bavarian Nordic

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Bavarian Nordic's three analysts is for revenues of kr.6.52b in 2025. This would reflect a notable 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shrink 6.3% to kr.11.90 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr.6.52b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr.17.85 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at kr.279, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Bavarian Nordic, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr.310 and the most bearish at kr.248 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Bavarian Nordic's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 38% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 18% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Bavarian Nordic is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr.279, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Bavarian Nordic going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Bavarian Nordic Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.