Subdued Growth No Barrier To Carlsberg A/S' (CPH:CARL B) Price

It's not a stretch to say that Carlsberg A/S' (CPH:CARL B) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.6x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in Denmark, where the median P/E ratio is around 14x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

With earnings growth that's inferior to most other companies of late, Carlsberg has been relatively sluggish. It might be that many expect the uninspiring earnings performance to strengthen positively, which has kept the P/E from falling. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a relatively elevated price for a company with this sort of growth profile.

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Does Growth Match The P/E?

The only time you'd be comfortable seeing a P/E like Carlsberg's is when the company's growth is tracking the market closely.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered virtually the same number to the company's bottom line as the year before. Although pleasingly EPS has lifted 32% in aggregate from three years ago, notwithstanding the last 12 months. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 5.6% per annum during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 13% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.

With this information, we find it interesting that Carlsberg is trading at a fairly similar P/E to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Key Takeaway

We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Carlsberg currently trades on a higher than expected P/E since its forecast growth is lower than the wider market. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Carlsberg you should know about.

If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Carlsberg, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.