Stock Analysis

TORM's (CPH:TRMD A) five-year total shareholder returns outpace the underlying earnings growth

CPSE:TRMD A
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Long term investing can be life changing when you buy and hold the truly great businesses. While the best companies are hard to find, but they can generate massive returns over long periods. Just think about the savvy investors who held TORM plc (CPH:TRMD A) shares for the last five years, while they gained 303%. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. But it's down 7.8% in the last week. But note that the broader market is down 1.1% since last week, and this may have impacted TORM's share price.

While the stock has fallen 7.8% this week, it's worth focusing on the longer term and seeing if the stocks historical returns have been driven by the underlying fundamentals.

View our latest analysis for TORM

SWOT Analysis for TORM

Strength
  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
  • Dividend is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the market.
Weakness
  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year.
Opportunity
  • Good value based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
  • Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years.

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the last half decade, TORM became profitable. That kind of transition can be an inflection point that justifies a strong share price gain, just as we have seen here.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
CPSE:TRMD A Earnings Per Share Growth May 5th 2023

It is of course excellent to see how TORM has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. Take a more thorough look at TORM's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of TORM, it has a TSR of 434% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that TORM shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 212% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 40% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 5 warning signs for TORM (1 is potentially serious) that you should be aware of.

Of course TORM may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Danish exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if TORM might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.