ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

DB:ZTOA Stock Report

Market Cap: €15.3b

ZTO Express (Cayman) Valuation

Is ZTOA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ZTOA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ZTOA (€18.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€34.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ZTOA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ZTOA?

Key metric: As ZTOA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ZTOA. This is calculated by dividing ZTOA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ZTOA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.4x
EarningsCN¥8.63b
Market CapCN¥115.97b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ZTOA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ZTOA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.8x
DHL Deutsche Post
12.1x8.8%€38.9b
TGHN Logwin
9.8x-7.4%€691.0m
LHA Deutsche Lufthansa
6.6x15.1%€7.4b
HLAG Hapag-Lloyd
18.9x-11.9%€27.7b
ZTOA ZTO Express (Cayman)
13.4x12.3%€15.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ZTOA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ZTOA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Logistics Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ZTOA 13.4xIndustry Avg. 13.5xNo. of Companies6PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ZTOA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the European Logistics industry average (13.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ZTOA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ZTOA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.4x
Fair PE Ratio17x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ZTOA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ZTOA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€18.70
€25.54
+36.6%
12.6%€32.70€19.52n/a21
Dec ’25€17.30
€25.73
+48.8%
12.6%€32.96€19.55n/a21
Nov ’25€20.60
€26.67
+29.5%
10.9%€35.17€18.77n/a21
Oct ’25€22.80
€26.19
+14.9%
12.9%€34.99€18.50n/a21
Sep ’25€19.30
€25.52
+32.2%
12.7%€34.11€18.20n/a21
Aug ’25€17.00
€26.11
+53.6%
15.7%€35.11€13.40n/a21
Jul ’25€19.10
€26.55
+39.0%
15.7%€35.70€13.63n/a21
Jun ’25€20.80
€26.32
+26.5%
14.9%€35.32€13.49n/a21
May ’25€19.50
€26.26
+34.7%
15.0%€35.74€13.71n/a21
Apr ’25€19.10
€26.19
+37.1%
15.2%€35.42€13.53n/a20
Mar ’25€18.60
€27.75
+49.2%
19.9%€36.43€13.45n/a19
Feb ’25€15.00
€28.47
+89.8%
19.1%€36.41€13.44n/a20
Jan ’25€18.50
€28.53
+54.2%
16.5%€35.83€13.23n/a20
Dec ’24€20.20
€29.52
+46.1%
17.2%€37.68€13.53€17.3020
Nov ’24€21.80
€33.48
+53.6%
10.7%€40.45€28.42€20.6020
Oct ’24€22.80
€33.45
+46.7%
10.5%€40.33€28.33€22.8020
Sep ’24€23.20
€32.91
+41.8%
10.6%€39.49€27.74€19.3021
Aug ’24€24.40
€32.75
+34.2%
9.1%€38.27€26.62€17.0021
Jul ’24€22.80
€33.44
+46.7%
8.8%€38.99€27.12€19.1021
Jun ’24€23.80
€34.68
+45.7%
8.5%€40.61€28.24€20.8021
May ’24€25.00
€31.80
+27.2%
9.1%€38.03€27.31€19.5021
Apr ’24€26.20
€32.26
+23.1%
8.2%€37.82€27.86€19.1021
Mar ’24€22.60
€32.66
+44.5%
8.9%€38.49€27.72€18.6021
Feb ’24€26.60
€32.46
+22.0%
9.2%€38.51€27.73€15.0021
Jan ’24€24.80
€31.88
+28.5%
10.8%€38.05€23.21€18.5021
Dec ’23€23.40
€31.76
+35.7%
11.1%€37.85€23.09€20.2021

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/25 10:59
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is covered by 43 analysts. 23 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yiqun ChenBOCI Research Ltd.
Yifan ZhouBOCI Research Ltd.
Fan TsoBofA Global Research