East Japan Railway Company

DB:EJR Stock Report

Market Cap: €20.1b

East Japan Railway Valuation

Is EJR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EJR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EJR (€17.61) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€1.97)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EJR is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EJR?

Key metric: As EJR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for EJR. This is calculated by dividing EJR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is EJR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.7x
EarningsJP¥219.15b
Market CapJP¥3.21t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EJR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EJR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.8x
HLAG Hapag-Lloyd
18.4x-8.9%€26.9b
DHL Deutsche Post
12.4x9.0%€39.8b
SIX2 Sixt
13.8x16.3%€3.0b
LHA Deutsche Lufthansa
6.6x14.0%€7.4b
EJR East Japan Railway
14.7x6.5%€3.2t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EJR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the peer average (12.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EJR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Transportation Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
EJR 14.7xIndustry Avg. 12.9xNo. of Companies6PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EJR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the European Transportation industry average (12.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EJR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EJR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.7x
Fair PE Ratio16.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EJR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EJR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€17.61
€18.70
+6.2%
7.0%€20.47€16.12n/a10
Nov ’25€18.14
€18.13
-0.04%
6.6%€19.91€15.68n/a10
Oct ’25€17.64
€18.45
+4.6%
5.8%€19.68€16.08n/a10
Sep ’25€17.22
€18.45
+7.1%
5.8%€19.68€16.08n/a10
Aug ’25€16.69
€18.33
+9.9%
5.7%€19.63€16.03n/a10
Jul ’25€15.25
€17.50
+14.8%
6.2%€18.86€15.41n/a10
Jun ’25€15.93
€17.43
+9.4%
6.4%€18.79€15.27n/a10
May ’25€16.82
€17.27
+2.7%
8.8%€19.00€14.25n/a10
Apr ’25€17.98
€17.86
-0.7%
9.2%€19.59€14.70n/a9
Mar ’25€18.20
€17.72
-2.6%
8.8%€19.75€14.81n/a9
Feb ’25€18.43
€17.22
-6.6%
7.7%€19.29€15.09n/a10
Jan ’25€17.20
€16.62
-3.4%
7.2%€18.63€13.92n/a11
Dec ’24€16.33
€16.62
+1.8%
7.2%€18.63€13.92n/a11
Nov ’24€16.65
€17.06
+2.5%
7.3%€18.91€14.75€18.1412
Oct ’24€18.00
€17.10
-5.0%
6.7%€18.94€14.94€17.6412
Sep ’24€17.40
€17.16
-1.4%
6.9%€19.05€15.03€17.2211
Aug ’24€17.20
€17.16
-0.3%
6.9%€19.29€15.22€16.6912
Jul ’24€16.83
€16.95
+0.7%
7.1%€19.03€15.01€15.2512
Jun ’24€17.10
€17.48
+2.2%
6.9%€19.23€15.69€15.9310
May ’24€17.40
€17.70
+1.7%
9.2%€20.43€15.54€16.8210
Apr ’24€16.79
€18.64
+11.0%
8.9%€21.29€16.20€17.9810
Mar ’24€16.23
€18.29
+12.6%
10.7%€21.22€14.76€18.2011
Feb ’24€16.70
€19.11
+14.4%
11.9%€22.86€15.08€18.4311
Jan ’24€17.69
€19.28
+9.0%
12.4%€22.45€14.12€17.2011
Dec ’23€18.03
€19.13
+6.1%
12.7%€22.56€14.19€16.3312
Nov ’23€17.85
€18.30
+2.5%
12.0%€21.10€13.84€16.6512

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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