Earnings Miss: Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft Missed EPS By 16% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 29% over the past week following Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft's (ETR:HLAG) latest quarterly results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at €5.1b, although statutory earnings per share came in 16% below what the analysts expected, at €2.51 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Our free stock report includes 2 warning signs investors should be aware of before investing in Hapag-Lloyd. Read for free now.

After the latest results, the consensus from Hapag-Lloyd's ten analysts is for revenues of €18.1b in 2025, which would reflect a definite 9.0% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to nosedive 59% to €5.96 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €17.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of €4.24 in 2025. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Hapag-Lloyd's future following the latest results, with a sizeable expansion in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.

Check out our latest analysis for Hapag-Lloyd

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Hapag-Lloyd 5.2% to €118on the back of these upgrades. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hapag-Lloyd at €170 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €75.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 12% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 6.9% over the last five years. Yet aggregate analyst estimates for other companies in the industry suggest that industry revenues are forecast to decline 0.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that Hapag-Lloyd's revenues are expected to shrink faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Hapag-Lloyd's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although Hapag-Lloyd'sthey are still expected to trail the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Hapag-Lloyd analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Hapag-Lloyd (at least 1 which is a bit concerning) , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.