Fraport AG (ETR:FRA) Just Reported Full-Year Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

It's been a good week for Fraport AG (ETR:FRA) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest annual results, and the shares gained 6.4% to €58.10. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of €4.5b coming in 2.3% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of €4.88, in line with analyst appraisals. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, Fraport's 13 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €4.44b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 6.2% to €4.57 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €4.37b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.00 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Fraport

The consensus price target held steady at €63.67, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Fraport at €90.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €40.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.1% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 14% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.4% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Fraport is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Fraport. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Fraport analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Fraport you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.