Those who invested in Deutsche Post (ETR:DPW) three years ago are up 147%

By
Simply Wall St
Published
December 22, 2021
XTRA:DPW
Source: Shutterstock

The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But in contrast you can make much more than 100% if the company does well. To wit, the Deutsche Post AG (ETR:DPW) share price has flown 124% in the last three years. That sort of return is as solid as granite. Meanwhile the share price is 1.8% higher than it was a week ago.

Now it's worth having a look at the company's fundamentals too, because that will help us determine if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.

View our latest analysis for Deutsche Post

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

Deutsche Post was able to grow its EPS at 32% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. Notably, the 31% average annual share price gain matches up nicely with the EPS growth rate. This suggests that sentiment and expectations have not changed drastically. Quite to the contrary, the share price has arguably reflected the EPS growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
XTRA:DPW Earnings Per Share Growth December 22nd 2021

It is of course excellent to see how Deutsche Post has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Deutsche Post's TSR for the last 3 years was 147%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Deutsche Post shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 39% over the last year. That's including the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 15% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Deutsche Post better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Deutsche Post you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on DE exchanges.

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